The Brookings Institution and Center for strategic and international Studies (CSIS) co-sponsored the panel discussion “Taiwan under Tsai: A two-year review” on May 30, 2018.  The speaker included Richard C. Bush, Bonnie S. Glaser, Ryan Hass, Shelley Rigger and Robert Wang.   The panelists addressed domestic politics and the economy on Taiwan, U.S.-Taiwan Relations, and cross-Strait relations and tensions.  As stated by the organizers that “international landscapes look very different for Taiwan.  Beijing suspended formal cross Strait dialogue following Tsai’s inauguration and embarked on a campaign of pressure against Taiwan.  Uncertainty has pervaded U.S.-Taiwan relations as the Trump administration’s commitment to and engagement in East-Asia as a whole has been questioned, and sparked fears that Taiwan will be inadvertently drawn into diplomatic clashes between the United States and China.  On the home front, the economy is growing but the benefits of growth are still unevenly distributed.   Public support for Tsai’s administration has lagged amid criticism of some of her policies.  Po9litical polarization continues unabated.  What do these developments mean for Taiwan’s present and future?”   Bush said that the United States should do more to push back against the unproductive recent actions by Beijing to suppress Taiwan international. Regarding trade negotiation between US and Taiwan, Bush said US should deal with it in a different way.  He did not see the sense in delaying talks on such an agreement due to the issue of Taiwan’s reluctance to open its market to US beef and pork that might contain excess additives. 

President Trump signed “Taiwan Travel Act”

The U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act into law on March 16, 2018.   The new act should be regarded as an upgrade of “Taiwan Relations Act”, passed by Congress in 1979.   This new law has a significant meaning to Taiwanese.   From now on, the high ranking officials from Taiwan and the United States are allowed to visit Taiwan and Washington DC respectively with no restrictions.  The following is a full text.

Taiwan was ranked as the world’s 26^th happiest nation and the happiest in East Asia per “World Happiness Report 2018”, released by Sustainable Development Solution Network-a global initiative launched by the UN in 2012- on March 14, 2018.  This year, the report ranked 156 countries by their happiness levels and 117 countries by the happiness of their immigrants.  The full report showed scores on six categories: GDP per capita, Social support, Healthy life expectancy, Freedom to make life choices, Generosity, and Perceptions of corruption and finally the combined score.  Finland scored 7.632 and is the happiest nation in the world.  Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Switzerland, Netherlands, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, and Australia held the top ten positions.   Taiwan scored 6.441 and ranked 26^th, while the United State scored 6.886 and ranked 18^th.  In East Asia, Singapore was ranked 34^th, Japan 54^th, South Korea 57^th, Hong kong 76^th, and China 86^th.     The evaluation of happiness of immigrants also indicated that all of the top ten countries scored high.  Again Finland was on top, while Taiwan placed 38^th.  According to the news released by Sustainable Development Solution Network, 1,000 people in each nation who were asked to rate their lives on a scale of zero for the worst possible life to 10 for the best possible life.    For well-developed countries, the previous report concluded that money doesn’t buy happiness.  It is much easier to improve happiness through social changes.

The big news for China’s 13^th National People’s Congress (NPC) was abolishing presidential term limits, thereby enabling current Chinese President Xi Jinping to rule indefinitely.  This action signaled the beginning of Xi Dynasty, as comments by many political observers.  Taiwan’s media reported the event extensively and generally believed that Xi was in total control of Chinese Communist Party (CCP), central government, and People’s Liberation Army.  Xi might take more aggressive role to handle issues related to Taiwan-China relations.  Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen did not make any official comment.  However, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) did issue the statement “China should think about following the global trend and implement systemic reform that would result in long-term security, democratic, human rights and the rule of law”.  MAC further said “Taiwan’s government would continue to monitor China’s activities, and would carefully evaluate and respond to the situation”.   In addition to abolish presidential term, NPC also added “The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is the most essential characteristic of China’s socialism with Chinese characteristic” to Article 1 of the Chinese constitution.  One week later, NPC re-elected Xi as president and chairman of the Chinese Central Military Commission.  Meanwhile, formal CCP Central Commission of Discipline Inspection secretary Wang Qishan was elected as new China’s vice president.  Wang was Xi’s right-hand man.  Xi will begin his second term as president of China soon.  Even though the second term will end in 2023, it was speculated that Xi will remain in power and rule China indefinitely.    As a result, Xi will be more powerful than Chairman Mao, the founder of PRC.  After the election, MAC expressed hope that Chinese President Xi could join hands with the Taiwanese government in facilitating a new pattern of amicable cross-strait exchanges.

Eastern Taiwan was rocked by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake at 11:50pm on February 6, 2018.  The Central Weather Bureau said the quake’s epicenter was 18.3km northeast of Hualien, at a depth of 10km.  The US Geological Survey measures the quake’s magnitude at 6.4, and said it was the result of oblique strike-slip faulting at shallow depth near the plate boundary between the Philippine Sea and Eurasia plates in Taiwan’s northeast coast.   The bureau data showed that over hundred aftershocks were recorded, including 4 that were over 5.0 magnitude.  Several high-rise buildings along a nearby fault were especially struck hard. Four buildings had collapsed or tilted: one hotel, one commercial and residential building and two apartment buildings.  The Marshal Hotel was collapsed, while Yun Men Tsui Ti was collapsed and titled 40 degree.  Immediately after the quake, it was estimated that several thousand households were without water and hundred households left without electricity.   The rescue operations were launched to rescue people entrapped in the buildings.  As of February 10, at least 16 people were killed, and 285 people were injured.  Two hours after temblor, President Tsai Ing-wen held an emergency meeting with her staffs and next morning Tsai flew to Hualien to survey the rescue operations and damaged buildings.  This earthquake was the largest in Hualien since 1972.  A total of 63 countries expressed a willingness to provide relief of sending rescue teams to Taiwan.  The Ministry of Foreign affairs expressed its heartfelt appreciation on behalf of the government and people of Taiwan to the countries and international organizations that conveyed their concern, condolences and offered assistance following the earthquake. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sent a letter to President Tsai, including a heartwarming gesture of writing “Taiwan go” in Chinese calligraphy. 

Institute for Taiwanese Studies will host a speech event, featuring Ian Easton, author of “The Chinese Invasion threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy”, at Great Los Angeles Taiwan Center on February 10, 2018.  The book was published last fall and received wide attentions from Taiwan and academic world in the United States.  Mr. Easton is the research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute.  His research focus is defense and security in Asia.  His 389-page book has eight important subjects: Why invade Taiwan? An evolving flashpoint, Warning signs, China’s war plan, Planning problems, How Taiwan would fight, American strategy in Asia, and What lies ahead?  In his speech, Easton most likely will answer the following frequently ask questions: 1. What is your book about? 2. What inspired you to write this book? 3. You draw heavily from leaked Chinese military documents. How did you get them? 4. What surprised you the most in reading internal PLA documents? 5. What do you think Chinese military officers will think of the book? 6. What do you think Taiwanese military officers will think of the book? 7. Did writing the book make you more or less worried about the possibility of a war in the Taiwan Strait? 8. Some former government officials have argued that the United States should explicitly guarantee Taiwan’s security.  Do you think Washington should have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, like it does with all Taiwan’s democratic neighbors (Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, etc.)?