美國已看懂中國猙獰面目嗎?
Topic: 5.Politics & Social Studies
Author: Adolf Huang (黃俊炯)
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美國學研界對中國之批判持續加溫、而川普政府高層也不手軟、制裁中國多管齊下。雖然政權交接仍有變數、但拜登仍陸續公佈重要人事任命、國安團隊已成形。由於美中關係空前惡劣、未來政府對中國之政策也成為焦點。選前川普已放話、若連任他會對中國再下重手。拜登及其未來國安團隊成員之過去言行、很自然的變成可研究參考的題材。時空不同、對同樣議題之看法會有所調整是不會令人太意外。尤其是政治人物之談話、常有少許矛盾之處、就不必試圖作精準的解讀。川普與拜登、誰對中國強硬?大部份人的印象是川普軗兇拜登溫和。川普雖對中國重批、但常稱習近平為好朋友(good friend) 。但拜登不曾以鋒利言詞大肆批評中國、但卻一度重批習近平 “This is a guy who does not have a democratic bone in his body. This is a guy who is a thug, who in fact has a million Uighurs in … concentration camps.” 。到底習近平喜歡誰?答案應是都不爽。

美國是否已看懂中國猙獰面目?媒體之新聞報導與評論、已讓多數美國人對中國持負面惡劣的印象。中國猙獰面目的中期目標是「武統台灣、逼退美國」、而終極目標是「取代美國、雄霸全球」。最近對美中關係之討論、其量與質皆大幅躍進、值得各界深思。美國智庫American Enterprise Institute (AEI) 之中國研究部主任Dan Blumenthal發表新書“The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State.” 前川普國安顧問波頓(John Bolton) 1115日在Wall Street Journal書評點出該書之重點“美國是否自滿?“:「China has taken advantage of American complacency  China is not the juggernaut of Wall Street financiers’ imaginations, but that doesn’t make its expansionism less a threat.   But a weaker China . . . does not necessarily mean a risk-averse China。」

波頓也順便提出他個人的觀點“拜登可能被誤導“:「The risk with Mr. Biden is not that his policy will be chaotic, but that it will be badly misguided.  Mr. Biden’s real views on dealing with China are obscure, more collateral damage from an election campaign that rarely debated foreign and defense policy in any substantive way.   Beijing’s obsession with Taipei provides Washington an asymmetric response to objectionable Chinese behavior.   There are smaller steps Washington could take. We could, for example, regularly receive Taiwanese officials in U.S. government buildings, which would seriously undermine the legitimacy of China’s campaign to force Taiwan into a morganatic union.

Hudson Institute之研究員Bruno MacaesForeign Policy發表長篇論述「Biden Thinks He’s Tough on China. He’s Just Complacent. 」也有其他獨特觀點“不可再依據傳統觀點“:「The conventional wisdom these days is that U.S. policy on China (bipartisan: Washington has woken up to the Chinese threat) will not change    The conventional wisdom is wrong. There is a fundamental choice to be made on how to deal with China, and Biden is very close to picking one alternative. There’s good reason to fear it’s the wrong one.    In every China policy, two elements have to be distinguished. First, there’s the values question the second element: power or capacities. 」。

美國情報總監John RatcliffeWall Street Journal之文章「 China Is National Security Threat No. 1」則提出官方觀點“中國對美國造成最大的威脅“China robs U.S. companies of their intellectual property, replicates the technology, and then replaces the U.S. firms in the global marketplace.  Our intelligence shows that Beijing regularly directs this type of influence operation in the U.S.   This is our once-in-a-generation challenge.   This generation will be judged by its response to China’s effort to reshape the world in its own image and replace America as the dominant superpower. The intelligence is clear. Our response must be as well.

這些專家想傳達之共同訊息是:「警告美國人不能自滿、不要被誤導、中國威脅是來真的、必須以非傳統思考對付中國」。這值得大家再深思。

Posted: December 14, 2020